?After losing their bout with Thunder Predator (0-2) last week, EgoBoys’ chances of survival in the OGA DPC South America Regional League Upper Division will depend on whether they can defeat Infamous on Wednesday. That, however, might be easier said than done considering they hold an unenviable 0-4-11 head-to-head record with their regional rivals since May 2019.

Regardless of those numbers, we can’t agree with the short Dota 2 betting odds on Infamous to win. Their only notable result across the last three weeks was a 2-0 sweep of Latam Defenders, and even that is hardly worthy of praise.

This match is a complete coin-flip, so you cannot help but favour the underdogs. Infamous might not have lost to EgoBoys before, but they’re just not playing well of late.

?The esports betting odds imply Thunder Predator should win this match 93.5% of the time, which is an astronomically high percentage for an online match in a league that is no stranger to upsets. That does not mean we believe Latam Defenders are stronger, but Christian “Accel” Cruz and co. have slipped before and there are no guarantees they won’t do it again.

Since Latam Defenders are already eliminated from the top division, they enter this match without any pressure, whereas Thunder Predator desperately need a win if they wish to finish in the top two. In theory, urgency should inspire efficiency, but we’ve seen TP fall apart in high-pressure games before, which is why we are siding with the outsiders to win at least one map.

?The Dota 2 esports betting odds for this match seem to be set based on brand value alone and make completely no sense. Infamous and Latam Defenders share the same 1-4 record four weeks into the tournament, which clearly shows there is not a lot to separate them, yet the odds suggest otherwise.

Even though there are arguments to be made that Infamous are individually stronger, there is no way their implied probability to win should be anywhere near 88.5% with the way they’ve been playing of late. There is not much to say about this except that esports bookmakers have made a mistake, and we will gladly take advantage of it.

?Unlike the first match of the day, which features two teams that share the same record, this one will see NoPing e-Sports (2-3) take on the only undefeated team in the tournament, beastcoast (5-0), who have also yet to drop a single map (10-0).

Despite their superb record, we still believe the odds offered on NoPing are way too high for a fixture in this league. It’s also worth noting that ex-paiN Gaming carry William “hFn” Medeiros will stand in for Juan Carlos “Mingatte” Mamani, so it’s not like NoPing lack the quality required to compete with the league frontrunners.

?Beastcoast enter this match as the only undefeated team of the tournament, having already bested the likes of EgoBoys (2-0), Team Unknown (2-0) and Latam Defenders (2-0). Their next opponents, Thunder Predator, are 2-1 after a 0-2 loss against Infamous and triumphs against Team Unknown (2-1) and SG e-sports (2-0).

Beastcoast are in better shape, but we have to consider Thunder Predator have won 13 out of 22 head-to-head meetings (13-2-6), including a 6-2-1 run since September. We will trust TP’s stronger head-to-head record over beastcoast’s insignificantly better form.

?This will mark EgoBoys’ second clash with Team Unknown of 2021 and their ninth since February 2020. These meetings have proved to be very one-sided, with Team Unknown securing all but two: a 0-2 loss last August and a 1-1 stalemate in November.

EgoBoys and Team Unknown last met just under a month ago during the OGA DPC qualifiers, where Unknown won 1-0 with over 20k net worth lead and 33-13 in kills. EgoBoys have since played five games and won three of them, albeit only against NoPing Esports, Latam Defenders and Infinity Esports, which are not particularly strong squads.

Team Unknown are in great shape (7-3), and while there is a chance they might slip up again, the Dota 2 betting odds on the map handicap are too generous for us to pass on.