Like the first two series of Mid-Season Invitational 2024 Stage 2, the battle between Bilibili Gaming and PSG Talon on Thursday, May 9, is expected to be very lopsided.

PSG Talon had a rough start to the tournament, suffering a 1-2 loss against FlyQuest in the first round of the play-in stage. But they showed improvement in the losers’ bracket with 2-0 sweeps of Estral Esports and FlyQuest to reach the final eight.

Bilibili Gaming were directly seeded into the second stage of the tournament as China’s top-ranked League of Legends team. That alone makes them serious candidates to win MSI 2024, and Bilibili’s performances this season make it hard to doubt their chances to hoist the trophy.

At $1.01 with the top LoL betting sites, Bilibili Gaming are expected to win the series 99% of the time. While that number might be fair, it means we have to search for value.

If we assume PSG Talon have a 10% chance of winning any map, there’s a 72.8% chance of a sweep, so taking Bilibili Gaming with a 2.5-map handicap at $1.27 doesn’t offer any value. That is assuming 10% isn’t too generous of an estimation for PSG, which it probably is.

The kill line of 12.5 for each map is a huge figure, it is one Bilibili Gaming can cover. They managed 16.4 kills on average in the LPL 2024 Spring Playoffs against much stronger opposition, and with the side choice, the favourites look set for a strong start to the series.

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